Does this account for inflation?

No — the projection is a nominal figure and assumes a constant rate of return, which real markets don't provide year to year.

What return rate should I assume?

That depends on your actual portfolio and risk tolerance — conservative long-term planning often uses a more modest assumed return than an aggressive, equity-heavy projection would.

Who came up with the 4% rule and how was it tested?

Financial planner William Bengen published it in 1994 after testing withdrawal rates against actual historical U.S. stock and bond returns across rolling 30-year periods starting between 1926 and 1963, looking for the highest rate that never ran out of money in any period tested.

Is 4% still considered safe today?

It remains a widely used starting point, but it's debated — some later research suggests a lower rate is more conservative for today's market conditions and longer retirements, while other analyses argue a higher rate has also held up. Treat it as a planning heuristic, not a guarantee.

Does this include Social Security, a pension, or other retirement income?

No — it projects only the savings and contributions you enter, growing at your assumed return. Social Security, pensions, and any other income sources aren't factored in, so your real retirement income would be higher than the figure shown here.

What happens if I set my retirement age at or below my current age?

The years-to-grow figure floors at zero, so the projected corpus is just your current savings with no further growth applied — enter a retirement age genuinely later than your current age for a meaningful projection.

Does the monthly contribution amount increase over time, like with a raise?

No — it's held constant at the figure you enter for the entire projection period. If you expect your contributions to grow with income, rerun the projection periodically with an updated number rather than expecting automatic escalation.

What does the chart's x-axis actually represent?

Each point is your projected balance at a specific birthday, counting up from the Current age you entered to your Retirement age — so the labels stay accurate even if you change your starting age.

Retirement Calculator

About the Retirement Calculator

Projects your retirement savings balance from your current age, savings, and monthly contributions, then estimates a sustainable monthly income using the commonly cited '4% rule.'

100% Free Runs in Your Browser No Sign-Up Required

How to use it

Enter your Current age and Retirement age.
Enter your Current savings and Monthly contribution.
Enter your Expected annual return (%).
Read your projected retirement corpus and estimated monthly income in the result panel and chart.

Formula

Future value = current savings compounded to retirement age, plus the future value of monthly contributions
Estimated monthly income = (Projected balance × 4%) ÷ 12

The 4% figure traces to William Bengen's 1994 study "Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data" (Journal of Financial Planning), which found a 4% first-year withdrawal, adjusted for inflation thereafter, held up across historical 30-year U.S. market periods for a 50-75% stock portfolio. It's a widely cited planning heuristic, not a guarantee for any individual's actual portfolio or timeframe.

Worked example

Starting with $500,000 at age 30 and contributing $1,500/month at an assumed 8% annual return until age 60 projects to a substantial retirement balance, with an estimated sustainable monthly income based on the 4% withdrawal guideline.

Recommendations

• Small increases to monthly contributions early on tend to matter more than the same increase started later — run both scenarios to compare.
• Revisit this yearly as your savings, income, and goals change, rather than treating one projection as fixed.
• Pair the projected balance with a realistic withdrawal plan — the 4% rule is a starting point, not a guarantee.

Frequently asked questions

A commonly cited rule of thumb suggesting you can withdraw about 4% of your retirement savings in the first year, adjusting for inflation after, with a reasonably low risk of running out of money over a roughly 30-year retirement. It's a guideline, not a guarantee.

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